Boeing expects air cargo traffic to double by 2033

SEOUL — Boeing’s biennial World Air Cargo forecast paints a rosy next two decades for the industry with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent over the next 20 years, more than doubling global airfreight traffic by 2013.

Boeing unveiled its forecast at the TIACA Air Cargo Forum here on Tuesday.

Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, says a period of stagnation in airfreight traffic appears to be over.

“It’s clearly been a marketplace with challenges from the Great Recession,” Tinseth said. “Hopefully, we are looking at data that shows we are moving out of an era of slow growth to one of more typical growth.”

An improvement in global industrial production over the past 18 months bodes well for air cargo, Tinseth said. Much of the weak air cargo growth in recent years can be attributed to an underperforming world economy and lackluster trade growth, he said.

“There has been a lot of volatility in the market, but since 2012, we have seen slow, but consistent improvement, especially over the last 18 months,” he said. “We expect trade to grow at long-term trends and we see a one-to-one relationship between growth of trade growth of air cargo.”

The forecast shows Asia-North America and Europe-Asia continuing to dominate world air cargo markets with the greater traffic volume. Intra-Asia, domestic China and Asia-North America markets are expected to have the greatest rates of growth over the next 20 years.

The traffic growth bodes well for freighter deliveries. Boeing says the world freighter fleet will grow with deliveries of 840 new factory-built airplanes and 1,330 passenger to freighter conversions during that timeframe. More than 52 percent of those deliveries are expected to replace retiring aircraft with the remainder needed to handle the traffic growth. Boeing believes that more than 70 percent of the new, factory-built airplanes forecast to be delivered between 2014 and 2033 will be large freighters, such as the 747-8 and the 777.

Tinseth said there are currently more than 140 777s and 747-8Fs flying with strong records of reliability. They fly an average of 12 hours a day, he said.

“We are seeing more and more carriers start to get interested in buying freighters for the future,” he said.

The Boeing forecast, which has been published regularly since the 1980s, was compiled by a team of 10 analysts, led by Tom Crabtree, of Boeing’s Marketing Business Development, Commercial Airplanes operation.

“The challenge is getting the data from the industry,” Crabtree said. “There is a lot of proprietary data out there.”

The forecast is an ongoing process and the next one will begin in earnest in a few months. Tinseth, who likened the effort to a “sausage-making” process, said Boeing uses the forecast to help develop its product strategy.

“It’s an important part of developing our long-range business plan,” he said. “We share it with our customers and suppliers to help them with the planning process.”

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Research and Markets: Global Air Cargo Security and Screening Systems Market 2014-2018


Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of the “Global Air Cargo Security and Screening Systems Market 2014-2018″ report to their offering.

An increase in global air cargo traffic has resulted in the identified need of effective air cargo security and screening systems. Traditionally, security checks are performed through physical inspection or canine method (threat detection dogs). These days there has been the adoption of new sophisticated technologies, which are relatively effective in screening large volumes of air cargo to ensure high security. Key screening systems currently in use include screening systems based on x-ray, explosives trace detection (ETD), and explosives detection system (EDS) technologies.

One of the major trends emerging in the market is the development of dedicated cargo terminals. These cargo terminals require screening infrastructures and systems to be installed. Such dedicated cargo terminals have to build infrastructure in place to handle such air cargo traffic requirements, including the air cargo security and screening systems.

According to the report, one of the major drivers in the market is an increase in air cargo security threats globally, which necessitates the need for reliable air cargo security and screening infrastructures. Air cargo is also a huge target for terror attacks and security threats. Hence, there is an increased implementation and use of air cargo security and screening systems globally.

Further, the report states that one of the major challenges that the market confronts is the high cost of the systems; for instance, non-CT X-ray equipment costs several hundred thousand dollars per unit.

Key Vendors

  • American Science and Engineering
  • L-3 Security Detection Systems
  • Morpho Detection
  • Rapiscan Systems

Other Prominent Vendors

  • 3DX-RAY
  • Armstrong Monitoring
  • Astrophysics
  • CEIA
  • Gilardoni
  • Nuctech
  • Smiths Detection

Key Topics Covered:

  1. Executive Summary
  2. List of Abbreviations
  3. Scope of the Report
  4. Market Research Methodology
  5. Introduction
  6. Market Landscape
  7. Geographical Segmentation
  8. Buying Criteria
  9. Market Growth Drivers
  10. Drivers and their Impact
  11. Market Challenges
  12. Market Trends
  13. Trends and their Impact
  14. Vendor Landscape
  15. Key Vendor Analysis

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Boeing Forecasts World Air Cargo Traffic to Double in Next 20 Years

SEOUL, South Korea, Oct. 7, 2014 /PRNewswire/ – Boeing (BA) projects air cargo traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.7 percent over the next 20 years, with global air freight traffic expected to more than double by 2033. The company released its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast at the International Air Cargo Forum and Exhibition earlier today.

“We see strong signs of a recovery as air freight traffic levels continue to strengthen after several years of stagnation,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “The air cargo market is now growing at nearly the long-term rates.”

World air cargo traffic began to grow again in second quarter of 2013 with growth reaching 4.4 percent for the first seven months of 2014, compared to the same period a year earlier. If this trend continues, 2014 will be the highest growth year for the air freight industry since 2010.

Much of the weak air cargo growth in the previous years can be attributed to two principal causes – an underperforming world economy and lackluster trade growth, particularly in those traditional commodities served by the air cargo industry.

The new Boeing forecast shows Asia-North America and Europe-Asia will continue to be the dominant world air cargo markets with the most traffic volume. Intra-Asia, domestic China and Asia-North America markets are expected to have the fastest rates of growth over the next 20 years.

With increased air cargo traffic, the world freighter fleet is also expected to grow with deliveries of 840 new factory-built airplanes and 1,330 passenger to freighter conversion airplanes. More than 52 percent of those deliveries are expected to replace retiring airplanes and the remainder used for growth.

New Freighter Deliveries: 2014-2033

More than 70 percent of the new factory-built airplanes scheduled to deliver between 2014 and 2033 are forecast to be large freighters, such as the 747-8 and 777.

“Boeing is committed to the cargo industry like no other company,” said Tinseth. “Our complete lineup of efficient, highly capable freighters are well positioned to continue to carry more than half of the world’s air cargo traffic as the market continues to strengthen.”

The World Air Cargo Forecast 2014/2015 is available at and the full text is downloadable in PDF format. Boeing has published the biennial World Air Cargo Forecast as an individual report since 1986.

Kevin Yoo
International Communications (Seoul)
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
+1 206-249-6372

Wilson Chow
Cargo Communications (Seattle)
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
+1 206-766-2918

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Global air cargo traffic to double in 20 years: Boeing

Seoul (AFP) – Global air cargo traffic will double in the next 20 years, enjoying annual growth of 4.7 percent as international trade picks up after a long period of stagnation, US aerospace giant Boeing predicted Tuesday.

Major airline operators were severely hit by the global financial crisis in 2008 and, despite a rebound in 2010, worldwide air cargo traffic has remained flat in recent years.

But Boeing, in its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast released at an industry expo in Seoul, said traffic had grown 4.4 percent on-year from January to July this year.

“We see strong signs of a recovery as air freight traffic levels continue to strengthen after several years of stagnation,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes.

“The air cargo market is now growing at nearly the long-term rates,” he said in a statement.

The report predicted cargo traffic between Asia and North America, as well as Asia and Europe would continue to dominate the market, although the fastest growth would be in intra-Asian and Chinese domestic volumes.

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Dual customs facility at Lambert gets key support

St. Louis is poised to strike a deal with a Texas company to develop a “dual customs” cargo facility at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, a move that would be capable of clearing goods moving to and from Mexico.

Under the three-year agreement that won preliminary approval this week, Brownsville International Air Cargo Inc. would prepare necessary studies and applications for the facility at Lambert. It would house U.S. and Mexican customs operations.

“The idea originally was to do this in Brownsville, Texas,” said Alonzo Peña, a former deputy director for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement who represented Brownsville International at this week’s airport commission meeting. “There has been a change. That change they saw as St. Louis being a greater hub.”

The idea of a dual customs facility is that it would roll out as an air cargo pilot project, but eventually it would be expanded to rail and ground transport.

The ultimate goal, he added, is to “facilitate trade” between the United States and Mexico. Currently, any cargo that flies into Mexico must go through one of three destinations, including Mexico City, and then distributed throughout the country.

Under the proposal, the facility would permit pre-clearance of cargo that is bound for Mexico as well as U.S. Customs inspection of cargo imported from Mexico.

If the St. Louis dual customs facility is approved, any cargo cleared by Mexican customs officials here could be flown anywhere in Mexico, Peña said.

Lambert Airport Director Rhonda Hamm-Niebruegge said other U.S. cities have looked at developing similar facilities.

“This has potential,” Hamm-Niebruegge said before the airport commission approved the deal. “It’s not going to happen overnight and it’s not going to be enormous Day One, but the thought process is that it will start bringing aircraft in to us.”

Products that would flow through Lambert would likely be real-time inventory that would be economical to ship by air. Hamm-Niebruegge said likely products could include perishable items as well.

“It’s cheaper,” she said. “It’s more economical. And it’s safer.”

If approved, Hamm-Niebruegge added, a dual-customs facility would help drive some local development as well.

Brandon Fried, executive director of the Airforwarders Association in Washington, D.C., said the dual-customs facility has potential to improve the flow of cargo to Mexico.

“If you can do Mexico clearance in advance before the cargo leaves St. Louis … once that aircraft land that cargo is ready to go,” Fried said.

The agreement, which must be approved by the city Estimate Board and the Board of Aldermen, would permit Brownsville International to develop the facility at Lambert. The agreement would terminate if the project application is denied by the U.S. or Mexican government.

St. Louis has sought to launch an international cargo market to and from Lambert with very modest results.

In September 2011, a China Cargo flight carrying 80 tons of manufactured products landed at Lambert and was greeted by dignitaries from across the region. But that market dried up amid a downturn in international cargo, airport officials said.

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Morpho's Itemiser DX Trace Detector Approved for Air Cargo Screening in Canada

WILMINGTON, MA–(Marketwired – October 01, 2014) – Morpho (Safran), through its subsidiary Morpho Detection, today announced the desktop Itemiser®DX explosives trace detector (ETD) has been qualified by Transport Canada for air cargo screening. 

As a result of this approval, the seventh by a global regulatory agency, Itemiser DX is now available for the quick, accurate detection of explosives at air cargo facilities throughout Canada. The government department responsible for developing transportation security procedures, Transport Canada maintains a Qualified Equipment and Services List to help industry maintain compliance with Canada’s air cargo security regulations. 

“We are pleased that Transport Canada has recognized the ability of Itemiser DX to help air cargo companies enhance explosives screening capabilities,” said Karen Bomba, president and CEO, Morpho Detection. “By quickly and accurately detecting explosives, Itemiser DX helps air cargo companies meet current and emerging security challenges with minimal impact on commerce.”

A lightweight, portable desktop system, more than 5,000 Itemiser DX units have been shipped to air cargo screening facilities, airports, critical infrastructure and secure locations around the world. 

For more information on Morpho’s detection products, visit

About Morpho Detection
Morpho Detection, part of Morpho, Safran’s (SAF.PA) security business, is a leading supplier of explosives and narcotics and chemical, radiological, and nuclear detection systems for government, military, air and ground transportation, first responder, critical infrastructure and other high-risk organizations. Morpho Detection integrates computed tomography, Raman spectroscopy, trace (ITMS™), mass spectrometry, X-ray and X-ray Diffraction technologies into solutions that can make security activities more accurate, productive and efficient. Morpho Detection’s solutions are deployed to help protect people and property the world over.

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